Budget cuts enacted by the Legislature this spring have helped weaken demand for state services that remain, according to a new projection adopted this morning by the state's Caseload Forecast Council.

In an analysis he termed "very preliminary," state Office of Financial Management Director Marty Brown said the reductions could improve the state bottom line by $41 million. You can find the new caseload forecast on the council website. Click on "Draft Overview and Narratives."

That comes on the heels of last week’s revenue forecast that weakened the state’s bottom line by $206.8 million.

Unlike the revenue forecast “when our revised forecast comes in lower, it’s good news,” said John Steiger, the council’s acting director. “Overall, the forecasts tend to be lower than they looked to be in February.”

In many cases, caseloads are projected to grow, though not as quickly as before the Legislature enacted hundreds of millions of additional budget cuts in April.

"Almost all the numbers are positive, which means the forecasts are growing," Steiger said.

But while many projections are higher, they aren’t as high as previously pegged. Steiger pointed to some projections, be they caseload decreases or slowing growth rates, that might signal an economic uptick.

But in many cases, caseload changes are being driven by policy or budget changes enacted by the Legislature this spring. For instance a bill that created sentencing alternatives for nonviolent offenders with minor children helped drive what is expected to be a slight decline in the prison population over the next two years.

That is certainly case with the projected Disability Lifeline caseload. This is the reformed General Assistance-Unemployable program that was reworked by the Legislature to cut costs and move toward a "care instead of cash" model. As a result, new projections show an abrupt drop in caseloads followed by a growth pattern that is flatter than what was being seen before.

The council is next scheduled to adopt an updated forecast Nov. 10.