Members of the state’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council are trickling in and seats in Senate Hearing Room 3 are beginning to fill in anticipation of the 10 a.m. release of a new quarterly revenue forecast. We’ll post the link when it’s made publicly available online.
The Hopper will live blog the presentation made by Arun Raha, the state’s chief economist and then we’ll post video later of Sen. Rodney Tom’s post meeting exchange with reporters.
10:00 AM UPDATE: The paperwork being handed out indicates revenue for the current two-year budget cycle is projected to be $231 million below the June forecast. Of that, $46 million is due to a legal settlement that is unrelated to economic activity. In addition, another $7 million has been lost due to an adjustment to the 2007-09 budget cycle.
The meeting has started.
10:05 UPDATE: "The decline in activity has troughed," Raha said. "the recovery is still fragile and fraught with risk. Except for economists it won't feel like a recovery" until mid-2010.
"I continue to worry about the sustainability of this recovery," Raha said.
10:08 UPDATE: "We are seeing a synchronized global recovery underway," Raha said. That means the state will benefit from increased export activity sooner than usual during such a recovery.
"We are mildly, and I stress mildly, more optimistic than we were in June," Raha said.
Manufacturing activity is up for two consecutive months, Raha said. But consumer spending is "bumping along the bottom. There are some signs this may improve."
He indicates housing prices are expected to rise slowly.
10:12 UPDATE: Raha said this year's "back to school effect" may stretch out two months rather than confine itself to August. He also asked consumers to spend a little more "at the risk of sounding like pledge week on NPR."
10:15 UPDATE: TVW is webcasting this event. You can find the Council press release and supporting materials for this forecast here (scroll down).
10:19 UPDATE: "Washington payroll and employment outlook is stronger than it was in June," Raha said.
"The outlook for inflation appears benign," he said.
10:23 UPDATE: Downside risks no longer outweigh the upside possibilities in terms of revenue collections for the first time since November, Raha said.
Total revenues in the current biennium are expected to be 1 percent lower than during the 2007-09 biennium.
The council has just approved the forecast with little comment from council members. The floor has been opened to questions from reporters.
10:28 UPDATE: Council members have been asked about the prospect for a special session of the Legislature. None of the three present are calling for one.
Victor Moore, the state's budget director, estimates the state is now projected to be $200 million short for the current two-year biennium with several other factors still unknown.
10:37 UPDATE: The press questions have been exhausted. Sen. Rodney Tom, D-Bellevue, and Rep. Kelli Linville, D-Bellingham, will now hold court with reporters. We'll post video of that exchange at the bottom of this post in the next couple hours.
UPDATE: Here's the video.
UPDATE: Here's TVW's coverage of the meeting.